Guru
Joined: 03/06/2019
Location: AustraliaPosts: 1581
| Posted: 05:38am 02 Dec 2019 |
I think the other thing with EV's is they are still very niche market despite the hype trying to downplay that and make out everyone wants one. I have spoken to a lot of people about them and am yet to hear of anyone that has desire for one atm.
I have found a LOT of resistance to them in the country where a lot of people think they are a complete joke and are admittedly frequently Mis informed. One has to also take into account a percentage , and not as small as one might assume, still think automatic transmissions are too troublesome and use vast more amounts of fuel.
I have always said public opinion is often 20-30 years behind reality and I find this no more typified than in the Automotive world. It would be easy to dismiss this as being a belief of ignorant and not too smart people but I personally know of 2 Different people ( and their wives/ Families) that are like this and they are well educated, smart and one of them is quite wealthy.
While I admit that a lot of the resistance I have heard to EV's is ignorance/ misinformation, there is also a very significant factor to people being quite happy with what they have now. As one person I spoke to laughed about the claims of them being smooth, He said nothing that drives on any road round here is going to be smooth and he does have a point.
People just don't have any problems with their Vehicles now they are looking for a solution to that would make them want to change. Certainly like everything there is a resistance to change but that's different to a MOTIVATION to change and especially to an unknown commodity.
I equate EV's ATM to be similar to home batteries. They are touted to save you money but given the purchase cost amortised against savings over the units life, they really don't save you any money at all. With EV's there might be particular cases where they do but for the majority of Joe averages... Nup.
I have severe reservations if EV's will ever become the mainstream Type vehicle as touted. I have said this before in other places and been shouted down but then those doing the shoutings's own figures they pulled all agreed with what I had said that there was no way they would become mainstream ( 51%+) of the vehicle fleet in 20 years time. Part of the reason for my position on this is because 1, I think the idea of battery prices coming down to a level many suggest is fantasy.
What product in huge demand with a shortage of supply that is predicted to get worse rather than better with a limited raw material supply from only a couple of sources in politicaly unstable places has ever got Cheaper? Already the production cost factor has been lowered to it's end point, where else would the savings come from?
Secondly, as demand for Petro fuels declines, it will become cheaper in order to maintain it's markets and profits. The cost of fuel now has nothing at all to do with production cost, it's more than anything else pulled out of the air and agreed to by cartels. If anyone things the trillions tied up in infrastructure is simply going to be allowed to be mothballed and forgotten about, I think they have a poor understanding of big business.
Ev's would have to go a VERY long way to truly replace the IC vehicle and that is decades away at least. I saw a test with a tesla recently towing a Caravan well under it's towing limit. Range fell from around 450 KM to 180. Having to stop every 160 KM to recharge is not practical. Sure, Might be an hour on a supercharger but there is no where here I'm aware of you can find superchargers every 160 KM.
Yeah, maybe one day on major highways but not in the remote areas for at least another 30 years plus.
There is also the HUGE question of power supply. That's a Big IF in this country today with power cos unable to provide enough power to run air conditioners during the day when there is significan't solar input. Demand now on the power stations is HIGHER at night than through the day. The idea of people charging EV's at nigh on cheap off peak power is a fantasy and a lie spread by EV proponents.
With the majority of unreliable energy generation going to solar and the wind industry in in freefall, it stands to reason that the majority of power will be available through the day. To think every employer is going to be able to provide charging facilities for all the workers vehicles is again extremely optimistic.
Off peak may not be in 10 years when the number of EV's grows and it may be hard for a lot of people to charge through the day.
There are a Huge amount of obstacles facing the EV industry and again, I can't ever see ev's becoming anywhere near mainstream in the next 30 let alone 20 years. All other factors aside, in that time frame I see the possibility of a a different technology coming along and replacing it before it gets to it's predicted blanket take over of the transport market.