Guru
Joined: 03/06/2019
Location: AustraliaPosts: 1582
| Posted: 01:06pm 02 Dec 2019 |
Running costs are questionable to me.
I have seen outright lies on this. Tesla had a comparison running cost BS chart on the OZ site for a while. Showed the running costs to be cheaper than a petrol car. They weren't' even by their own figures which I thought were quite accurate.
Typical of Tesla spin doctoring and number fiddling, the comparison included the free 1500 KW supercharging with every new vehicle. As I demonstrated on a fan Boi site, the first 2000 KM was cheaper than a comparable ICE but the 2nd 1500Km and all after that were in fact more EXPENSIVE. And I was using cars like Commodores and Falcons for comparison. Use something like a camry or even some Diesel SUV's and the numbers were worse.
You know you have them by the proverbial's when you get on a site full of one eyed Fan Bois and not one argues with your statements but typically tries to change the subject.
Last time I looked, they had removed that comparison. Maybe my exposing it got back to them. They had the same on the US site as well.
The other thing with the cheaper to run claim comes back to purchase costs. EV's are always far more expensive than a comparable ICE and what I have seen, insurance is a Killer WHEN you can get it. Not all companies, including the majors will do all EV's now. Hardly surprising with the difficulty in getting parts and people to fix them.
Add in the fact they are all canbus and more requiring factory computers to reset things and what would be a virtual non existent availability of used parts so loved by repairers these days and they would present a Costly if not significant risk.
To me it's not much point investing $100K to save maybe 20 when you can spend 30 to start and be done with it. There are other aspects of EV's with depreciation which makes the value of EV's plunge like a brick and then the relatively Limited life of an EV.
They -may- be cheaper on servicing ( But have you seen the services costs Ev's DO have to get) but come 7-10 years when that battery pack goes and the cars are less than worthless. I thought that maybe they may be good for very limited range but it seems this is not the case. Like being too smart for everyone's good, once the battery get to a certain point the vehicles in the main just shut down.
In comparison, the Mrs much loved Subaru dropped a bearing the other week after just 275 K Km. A 60K KM used engine cost me $800 and I spent about another $400 on it having the heads skimmed, head gaskets and a timing belt kit. Took a Day to get the old one out and have the thing driving at the end of the same day. I did a couple of Drive shafts, sway bar links , rear pads oil and filters and it literally drives like a new car. Mrs said she kept thinking the thing had stalled at the lights it's so quiet now. Thing runs like a watch and will be good for another 250K Km at least. It won't need anywhere near what the depreciation of a new EV would have spent on it in another 10 years.
There is every chance this thing could still be running when a new EV today is finished and not worth going on with.... so much for the enviro footprint which is known although not admitted is generally worse than an ICE, emissions from fuel included. EV's now are mainly Coal Fired and with the low penetration of unreliable power the world over, will be in the great majority for decades to come.
I have to laugh when I read of people talking about charging EV's from their solar panels. They clearly have NO idea of what an EV battery Hold and what typical, even 6.6KW system puts out... Summer or winter. Of course then there are 2 other problems..... How do you charge the EV if you drive it to work from your panels and If the solar is Charging the EV, the house is using the coal fired grid now so you are robbing peter to pay Paul. In the city where EV's are in their most practical environment, a LOT of people don't have room for very big solar setups if they are not unit or townhouse dwellers that don't have any room at all.
Being computers on wheels, it's not always possible just to put a reco pack in when batteries die either.
Manufacturers are locking out other 3rd parties from changing any parts at all so any replacement pack is likely to have to come from a stealership at typically painful prices.
I was reading recently of someone with a 5 YO nissan leaf that is just through it's 3rd pack and Nissan Oz want $35K plus labour for a replacement.
As for suitability, another silly argument I have seen for EV's is when you want to go on holidays etc you simply hire an ICE. Have these people EVER tried to hire a car in peak times, Christmas, easter, school holidays? Good luck with that!
Add that into the running cost of the EV as well.
And there is one other thing I NEVER see mentioned with EV's, TAX.
There is no way gubbermints will either allow nor can afford to loose the huge revenue they get from fuel excise. As soon as they see that declining, a road tax will be imposed on EV's the same as what makes up more than half of present fuel costs here. They may well go to a system like NZ has with Diesel Vehicles where you buy tax credits in advance for KM travelled. Once the playing field is evened up like that, any running costs an EV May have will be greatly diminished.
Once the Running cost advantage is lost, EV's have little practical advantage over ICE's and a lot of drawbacks for many people. This will slow down sales and ICE's and EV's may reach an equilibrium unless gubberments force buyers hands. They may or may not but that will come down to what they can make the max revenue out of more than anything else.
There are lots of ways the numbers are spin doctored to make EV's look cheaper but the whole and real cost I am very suspect is a VERY different case. I don't see ev's truly being cheaper to own/ run for another decade yet. At least. If a raod tax is brought in which at sometime will be a certainty..... Going to be hard for EV's to remain cheaper unless fuel taxes are increased which will be a very hard thing for gubbermints to do. Look at what happened in France.
Again, Ev's atm are much like home Batteries that after the $10K purchase price save you $7K worth of power over their lifetimes.
Don't think the ratio is that good for EV's yet.
I don't believe EV's are near what they are cracked up to be yet but perhaps their greatest challenge is going to be overcoming the behavioural and logistic changes which are going to be required to support any significant change over to the transport fleet. People are creatures of habit and reluctant to change. The infrastructure changes that will be needed to support an electric fleet will be mammoth. The auto industry certainly has a Novelty factor to drive EV slaes like it's never had in it's history but I see that as being relatively short lived as well.
When people get more exposed to EV's and see they are still stuck in traffic and not a lot really has changed, that novelty factor will wear off.
While Hydrogen I believe has massive shortcomings, It's main advantage seems to be it's ability to bypass a lot of the behavioural and infrastructure Changes EV's will require.