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Grogster

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Joined: 31/12/2012
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 9063

Posted: 02:35am 15 Jan 2024

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The latest scare-mongering going around, is how a solar flare or EMP could wipe-out the electrical grids of the world, and fry all our electronics leaving us back in the dark-ages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kJ_SofFm0g is the latest "Scare you to death" type video.

Just how much truth is there in this stuff?
I find it hard to believe myself with my own knowledge of electronics, BUT - I might simply be uneducated in terms of solar flares and EMP's and there might be a genuine threat in that circumstance, so can any of the members here in the know, state if there is any validity to these videos trying to frighten people about yet another doomsday event.

....or is it just the latest end-of-the-world claim like the Y2K bug and the Mayan calendar saying we were all doomed in 2012....

A new one of these end-of-days theories pops up every few years and they usually are proven to have no substance. Is this yet another one of those?

Thoughts?
Comments?
Opinions?

Smoke makes things work. When the smoke gets out, it stops!

Solar Mike
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Joined: 08/02/2015
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 1123

Posted: 03:17am 15 Jan 2024

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Some of it is true, I remember reading in Scientific American magazine over 40 years ago where a direct hit from a large solar flare, could wipe out ALL the large high voltage power transformers in the USA energy grid, and also destroy any sensitive electronics that had enough wires to create an antenna.

It would take many years to replace the power transformers alone, so there would be a dark age of sorts for awhile.

Scary stuff...

phil99

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Joined: 11/02/2018
Location: Australia
Posts: 1783

Posted: 04:36am 15 Jan 2024

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Minor flares happen fairly often an one or two satellite failures have been attributed to them.
The only recorded super flare was about 150 years ago, the Carrington Event. The only really long wires then were for the telegraph systems. Morse operators got shocks from their keys despite the insulation, receiver relays burned out. In less affected areas further from the poles the systems remained live and working when the batteries were disconnected.

The HV transmission grid would be a much better antenna for such an event. HV surge diverters can't cope with the largest lightning strikes so have no chance against such a large wide spread surge.

However they seem to be very rare, the next one may be in a week or two to a millennium or two.

Edit, found this.

Cosmos Magazine said But aside from auroras, there are much more serious potential consequences of space weather. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause electric currents to flow through the Earth – and through power lines, so they can interrupt the power network. They can also impact satellites in space and high-frequency radio communications to name a few.

We work closely with the energy sector, with custom models that feed into their systems. If we’re expecting a space weather event, the energy sector operators will bring up a map in their control room that enables them to monitor any currents that we’re forecasting and take any mitigating actions.

Fortunately, these kinds of impacts are rare. The biggest example in history occurred in 1859 and is known as the Carrington Event, Earth’s most famous space weather storm. Vivid auroras lit up the sky all around the world for days, astounding everyone who saw them – even at the equator. Back then, telegraph systems were the most advanced communications technology that we relied on. The currents were so strong that telegraph operators were able to send messages through their systems without being connected to a power source. Operators were getting shocks through their equipment – telegraph poles caught on fire.

We haven’t seen any event directed toward Earth close to the magnitude of the Carrington Event since then. But if any event came close in today’s power network, transformers could be damaged – worst case, transformers might be completely destroyed. Satellites most certainly can be impacted if we had a storm of that size, resulting in interruptions to the global navigation system, plus all aspects of satellite communications.

It’s important to take action before a storm reaches Earth wherever possible. But it’s difficult for us to predict exactly when these CMEs are going to arrive.

Edited 2024-01-15 15:08 by phil99

Grogster

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Joined: 31/12/2012
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 9063

Posted: 11:14pm 15 Jan 2024

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Interesting.

There are SO MANY of those "End-of-the-world" theories and conspiracies, I just dismissed this one pretty much as one of those.
Interesting that there could actually be something in this one.

For further investigation....

Smoke makes things work. When the smoke gets out, it stops!

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